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There’s a lot of helium in that markup. The stock has soared 18% since the day after the company posted its unsettling second-quarter results. If Netflix’s fundamentals continue to come undone in Monday’s report, it would nip a lot of the buyout buzz in the bud. Companies that would be diluting their bottom-line results in acquiring Netflix would be less likely to do so for a stock that’s out of favor, adding insult to injury following a bad report. The best reason to hold or even buy Netflix on Monday Bearish analysts, a likely miss in domestic subscriber growth, and a buyout bubble floating to a sharp needle seem like big reasons to avoid Netflix with a single trading day left to get out ahead of the potential deluge. However, it’s also just as easy to argue that a lot of this “perfect storm” will pass. Even flat domestic subscriber growth may be seen as a success, given the unique circumstances of the third quarter. The same scenario won’t exist in the fourth quarter and beyond, so it will be easy for Netflix to dismiss what could be a horrendous third quarter as a fluke. Everyone is expecting a bad quarter, and it’s also possible that the market has discounted a choppy August. A rough second quarter shocked the market, but that won’t be the case this time around.

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